Borussia Dortmund: Not Lucky, Just Good

Some pundits and Bayern players have said that Borussia Dortmund have been lucky in many of their games this season. Here we take a look at why that is just a myth.

One of the most interesting developments in football analytics has been the recent rise of the expected goals statistic: an algorithm that uses shot location to predict the chances a shot has of finding the back of the net.

According to expected goals, Borussia Dortmund have been running hot all season; Understat has projected that they should’ve scored around 12 less goals than their 50, and conceded 2.28 more than their current 14. Should these stats be believed, Dortmund should be in third place, behind Leipzig in second and Bayern in first.

The idea is that Borussia Dortmund have just been lucky, because teams that over perform expected goals rarely do it so consistently or for as long. Even Messi and Ronaldo tend to perform within the confines of expected goals, so why should this team be any different from the world’s greatest players?

This has led many pundits to question Borussia Dortmund’s title bid. They claim that the league leaders will perform in similar fashion to the short lived charge at the beginning of last term; red hot for a time before their efforts dissolve in a terrible run of form.

Luckily, their theory is not as sure as they believe. There are a few aspects of Dortmund’s manager, their style of play, and the team itself that invalidate the criticisms of their doubters.

First and foremost, Lucien Favre has always defied the expected goals metric. For example, in 2016/17 his OGC Nice side scored 11 more and conceded 16.5 less than projected as they finished in third, above Lyon and Marseille.

This is largely down to his style of play. Like most managers at top side, Favre’s teams are adept at keeping the ball; however, he finds his divergence in how his teams defend. It is customary for modern teams to gegenpress, or counter-press when they lose the ball. This is a style that was popularized at the Westfalenstadion under Jurgen Klopp. Favre is of another school of thought. He prefers to get bodies in between the ball and the goal, deploying a deep block with 9 men behind the ball.

This works to the detriment of the bookies, because the xg model is flawed; it doesn’t know where defenders are. Basically, Favre’s defenses over perform because his style of defending increases the chance of shots being blocked, and reduces the quality of chance the opposition has on the goal.

As for the high powered attack, there are a few reasons for Dortmund’s excellence. First and foremost, they are adept on the counter, and from set plays. According to WhoScored, BVB have scored 6 goals on the break(the most in the division), and 9 from set plays(second in the division).

Counterattacks are a key part of Favre’s attacking game plan, and are significant to defying xg because, once again, it doesn’t know where defenders are. A chance generated from a counter is less likely to be a contested opportunity, and thus it is much easier to find the net.

Lastly, the Swiss Coach focuses on technical quality in training sessions, and doesn’t coach attacking into his players. His sessions focus on tiny details and minute aspects of technique. He told Swiss paper 24 Heures “speed of execution, anticipation, using both feet, first touches… little details like that are the fundamentals.”

Favre’s emphasis on quality on the ball, and free roam for attacking players like Paco Alcacer, Marco Reus, and Jadon Sancho are both good explanations as to why he can defy the xg metric so consistently. His stewardship at Borussia Dortmund has been nothing short of extraordinary, and the progress the team has made under him has us running out of superlatives.