Analysis: How many Bundesliga goals will Sébastien Haller score this season?
How did that compare to other Bundesliga forwards?
According to One Versus One, Haller’s 0.62 xG per goal was only bettered by Eric Maxim Choupo Moting (0.72), Christopher Nkunku (0.71) and Marcus Ingvartsen (0.64) amongst forwards.
xG is often calculated with the likelihood of shots measured by previous scenarios, shot placements, where shots are taken from and numerous other factors. We have taken a particular interest in shot conversion of big chances as a metric to use for comparison. Using data from WhoScored, we have used the three games that Haller had the most shots in as a small sample.
What is interesting regarding the above is that two of those games were the only time that Haller completed full 90 minutes last season following his comeback.
Additionally, Haller’s 32% shot conversion in big chances alone puts him on par with Eric Maxim Choupo Moting. This feels like a good comparison because the Bayern forward also featured in 19 Bundesliga games last season.
As Haller was gradually brought into the team in January, a fairer measure would be to take the match scores of his last 10 games on WhoScored, which averaged a score of 7.64 overall. In comparison to Choupo Moting’s best 10 game stretch between October and February (7.62), Haller marginally scored better.
Prediction – How many goals will Haller score this season?
If we had to predict how many goals Sébastien Haller will score in the Bundesliga this season, a sensible prediction would place him somewhere between 15-17 league goals. This would be a figure around double of his xG for last season (6.41) and the 16.3 xG of two seasons ago, albeit in a weaker league.
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In a season like last, this would have been around enough to secure the Torjägerkanone award. Of course, this is based on statistics and there is every chance that Haller can comfortably beat this expected mark. Borussia Dortmund are a team that also creates a lot of chances, and Haller’s exemplary movement would aid both his and the team’s goalscoring.