Borussia Dortmund have nearly done the unthinkable: they’ve ALMOST qualified for the UEFA Champions League. After failing to win more than two consecutive matches all season, the Black and Yellows have gone on a run of five consecutive wins in a run of form which has seen them earn 19 of a possible 21 points from their last seven games. Now, UCL is in clear sight!
Table Status
BVB has all but qualified for Europe, broadly. BVB sits in fifth place, three points ahead of both Mainz and Leipzig. If Dortmund lose, Mainz would need to win with a high enough margin to overturn the +5 goal differential Dortmund bests them by, in order to overtake them. Leipzig’s differential is 11 lower than Dortmund’s, and the prospect of Leipzig scoring 10+ goals in their final game is unimaginable.
Borussia Dortmund have 54 points, one behind fourth-placed Freiburg, and three behind third-placed Frankfurt. But even with two teams leading them in the race, Borussia Dortmund has a clear path to UCL qualification.
How will Dortmund qualify for UCL?
Borussia Dortmund needs to defeat an already relegated Holstein Kiel by two or more goals to all but guarantee them a place in next season’s premier club competition. St. Pauli’s shock draw with Frankfurt on Sunday has opened a new path for Borussia Dortmund. Since Freiburg plays Frankfurt on Saturday, it’s impossible for both teams to earn three points, meaning a win for Dortmund will likely see them leapfrog the loser of Freiburg v Frankfurt.
The Scenarios:
If Frankfurt wins or draws, they will automatically qualify for the UCL on points alone. If Frankfurt wins and Dortmund wins, then Dortmund will qualify on points. If Freiburg loses and Dortmund earns a draw, BVB will earn UCL qualification based on their superior goal differential.
If Frankfurt and Freiburg draw, then Frankfurt will qualify on points. If these two teams draw and Borussia Dortmund wins, then Dortmund will earn fourth place based on a superior goal differential to Freiburg.
If Freiburg defeats Frankfurt, then Freiburg will qualify for the Champions League on points. If Frankfurt loses and Dortmund wins, then goal differential will play a major tiebreaker. If Frankfurt loses by one, Dortmund needs to win by two. This scenario would tie Dortmund and Frankfurt on points, goal differential, and head-to-head, meaning that total goals scored would determine the team to earn fourth place. Frankfurt has scored 65 goals this term with a +20 differential. Dortmund has scored 68 with a +17 differential.
There is still a scenario in which Dortmund wins by two, Frankfurt loses, but still advances. It’s unlikely, but if Dortmund wins by two, and Freiburg wins by one in a match that ends with Frankfurt’s total goals scored surpassing Dortmund’s. It’s unlikely but possible.
BVB knows that the bigger the win next week, the higher their likelihood of making the Top four, thereby qualifying for the Champions League.