Borussia Dortmund well placed to qualify for UEFA Champions League round of 16

The number 12 is considered to be the magic number in the UEFA Champions League group stage. Since UEFA changed the format to the current model in the 2003-04 season, only one team has failed to progress to the knockout stage after winning four or more matches.

The exception of this rule: In 2013 an 87th minute strike from Kevin Großkreutz in Marseille put Borussia Dortmund at 12 points –  just like Arsenal and Napoli – making Diego Maradona’s former club the first team to get knocked out despite reaching that magic number.

On the flip side, two teams have been able to survive getting knocked out in the group stage despite getting just six points (Zenit in 2013 and Roma in 2015). Which means that you don’t need to get to twelve points to progress in the tournament, but it would be much better for the fans’ mental health if you do.

So far, so good

At the halfway point of this season’s UEFA Champions League group stage, Borussia Dortmund have six points to their name. You don’t have to be Will Hunting to figure out that they would end up with those magical 12 points if they manage to beat FC Copenhagen and Sevilla in the second half of the group stage. If the Black and Yellows and Manchester City both win next week, both teams will qualify for the round of 16.

So, it appears that things are looking pretty good so far. But famously this team is capable of anything – good or bad – as a look at recent UEFA Champions League campaigns shows.

The Numbers

Since the change in the UEFA Champions League format, Borussia Dortmund have qualified for the tournament ten times. The team has managed to progress to the knockout rounds seven times, reaching the final once (2012-13) and the quarterfinal three times.

At times, Borussia Dortmund have been able to take control of their group early on. In the 2014-15 and 2018-19 season, they won their first three matches and ended up at the top of the group when the year concluded. Notably for an attack-minded club: in both of those years they didn’t even concede a goal in those first three matches.

Are six points enough?

Die Schwarzgelben have had six points at the halfway point just like this season on three occasions in the past. The most recent example being last season when they failed to qualify for the last 16 despite beating Besiktas and Sporting Lisbon on matchday one and two. Borussia Dortmund then tumbled twice against Ajax, before being knocked out of the Champions League by Sporting CP on matchday five.

However, on the other two occasions they were able to pull through (2013-14 and 2020-21). As mentioned before, 2013-14 was an absolute nail-biter and gave Napoli that infamous record. Even after three games, this looked to be in the cards with Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal and Napoli all at six points. Interestingly enough, the three teams were already in the exact order as the group would shake out.

In the more recent example of the 2020-21, Borussia Dortmund took the lead of the group with six points, followed by Lazio with five, Club Brugge with four and Zenit with one point. This is interesting because the group was much tighter than this year as Club Brugge at the time were able to beat Zenit, unlike Sevilla, who only managed a draw with Copenhagen when the two sides met on matchday two. This draw is what opens the door for both Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund to seal their place in the round of 16 already next week.

Conclusion

Recent scars will hopefully prevent Borussia Dortmund from feeling too comfortable and make them keep the foot on the gas to clinch their place in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League.

Despite suffering a crushing 4-1 defeat on Wednesday, Sevilla have the players to pose a threat to Borussia Dortmund. And the Andalusian side has just changed its head coach which can certainly ignite a team. So Edin Terzic’s side could be in for a much tougher test when the two teams meet again next week at the Westfalenstadion.

But there should be real optimism about Borussia Dortmund prospects in the UEFA Champions League, especially considering how injury-riddled this team is.

BVB’s win on matchday three was vital as they have only made it past the group stage once when having less than six points after three matches (2019-20). The three points in Seville, and the good cup track-record of Edin Terzic have certainly put the team in position to qualify for the round of 16. And if Borussia Dortmund can build some momentum in the coming weeks, they may even fancy their chances of beating Manchester City and snatching top spot in the group when the two sides meet at the Westfalenstadion later this month.